After one of the dirtiest campaigns ever, Adolf has had enough of politics for a while, so here is his final prediction. Some assumptions:-
- National wins Epsom
- National wins New Plymouth
- Dunne loses Ohariu
- Mana wins TTT
- Labour plunges due to dirty tactics in last week, benefiting MP and Greens
- Many Maori electors vote Labour candidate National Party - protest against tactics
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | | % of MPs |
| Green Party | 17.00% | 22 | 0 | 22 | 22 | | 18.33% |
| Labour Party | 21.00% | 27 | 0 | 27 | 27 | | 22.50% |
| Mana | 0.50% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | 0.83% |
| Māori Party | 4.00% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | | 4.17% |
| National Party | 51.00% | 65 | 0 | 65 | 65 | | 54.17% |
| Totals | 93.50% | 120 | 5 | 115 | 120 | | 100.00% |
Notes:
10 comments:
wow. thats way out.
1. Greens wont get 17%
2. Labour will get more than 21%
3. Dunne will win Ohariu.
big news, I think you underestimate the negative power of Goff's blatant and disgraceful lying during these last few days and that of Labour's disgusting gutter tactics. These things will weigh heavy on the minds of many decent Labour voters who will protest by giving their vote to the Greens - or the Maori Party.
I see you don't dispute National at 51%.
We'll just have to wait and see. That's the fun of the whole thing.
I too forsee National topping 50% and making the low 50s.
I have Liarbour at 23-25% but I would be happier to see them poll even lower.
Fail Gaffe has been particulalrly disgusting with his lies over police recruitment.
But Liarbour has delivered worse smears in the past.
We can only wonder what they will do next.
We can only hope that people will see through Liarbour's lies and smears and punish Liarbour for them.
I still see ACT winning Epsom on the balance of probability, but it will be a close run thing.
Hopefully, this will lead to a couple more ACT MPs coming into parliament too.
Adolf, although we all luv you, you gruff, surly old curmudgeon . . your track record of political predictions isn't all that flash buddy.
what's your prediction for the real vote... repealing the odious MMP or continuing with the sham system designed to stop countries becoming powerful?
In all the takes on FPP that I have read, people simply fail to point out that the populace are actually generally too dumb to understand the subtleties of multi-party systems.
FPP produces stable govts because you don't have to think too much about who you like or don't.
It also has a tendency to push edgy positions as you don't have to be centrist and media apologist in all your decisions (probably the reason why Keyster fails to actually correct any of the hangovers from Helengrad)
Mort, do you remember the wailing and screeching about FFP before MMP came to be?
Funny that, don't you think?
Mort, My pick is that MMP will be retained.
Labour has been trucking voters to the Polls, pre-election day, in Labour strongholds. Mike Williams has a lot of footsoldiers in those seats.
Whilst my skin is a bit blue at this point, I'm still holding my breath and hoping ACT can take Epsom to return for another term.
The obvious is that a lot of people categorise the parties thus
National -- more of the same, it's our turn we know better.
Labour --I'm not a teacher, unionist, bureaucrat or a poof. No show of a vote
United F. --I don't like Davy Crocket hats
Mana -- I'm not brown, mad or an anarchist
Maori -- I'm not brown and they can buy their own cars and KFC
Greens -- now that poor mad Sue has been eliminated I might throw away my freedom and chuck them a tick. Maybe not..I hate nagging
ACT-- Rolled up by Rodder's hubris, Banksies teeth, and led by a good man who cant keep his shoe out of his gob.
NZ First. -- Living proof the rule of law no longer applies in NZ and a large section of the populace is stupid or has amnesia. Winston should be locked up.
Libertarians -- sigh! Saint Ayn, [pbuh]
Conservatives -- Will most likely catch my vote. So common sense they don't even look like candidates
George
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